ACB Confirmed

Amy Coney Barrett is now a SCOTUS judge. I don’t suppose she’ll be quite as bad as the progressives fear, but it’s depressing that the judicial pillar is so heavility politicized in the US. The root case is the extent to which power is concentrated …

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Opening call

Things seem risk off. Mondays in Europe are odd, because the US sets the tone for markets, but DX is up, commodities are generally down, European equities down quite a bit (ESTX50 down 1.4%). 10 years are up (yields down). This is almost a full house of …

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Fragments

House sales are up a lot.

Some FAANG type stocks are beginning to crumble,

• $NFLX Netflix fell nearly 10% as user growth and profits disappointed
• $SNAP Snap rose over 40% as ad revenue grew over 50% and brands resume advertising spending
• $TSLA Tesla ended down on the week. The …

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Well done Robert Armstrong

In this piece, the author explains why ESG investing is not going to work. Basically, ESG funds have outperformed because they are stuffed with FAANG stocks (which are notionally green, although often have terrible corporate governance). This is not going to work forever. The article is …

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Wrap

Equities, yields, commodities, dollar (vs Euro) up. Precious metals down. NDX flat, $INTC down.

News

US election, stimulus measures (UK & US), Covid, regional lockdowns, Brexit. The usual suspects. No real resolution.

I was busy with personal stuff today. Normal service to be resumed tomorrow, hopefully. Something to ponder:

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Steepener in mainstream

The FT devoted a long article about the steepener trade. The headline was that Biden would cause long-dated bond yields to blow. Various authorities were quoted, including Paul Singer, Russell Clark, Dymon Capital, as well as an analyst at JPM.

This will not happen overnight, and it …

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The FED is toying with the idea of injecting money directly into consumers’ wallets

This article is about the FED toying with the idea of issuing a digital currency. This is equivalent to allowing ordinary consumers to have an account with the FED, and not just the commercial banks and …

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CCR (CONSOL Coal Resources LP)

Greenlight Capital holds a ton of this. Div. yield > 34%.

MOS

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4379722-mosaic-room-to-run-on-back-of-wheat-prices

The thesis is that with wheat prices on a roll, fertilizer is going to be in increased demand. Sounds plausible. Energy is an input into nitrogenous fertilizers, and that …

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Too much saving, too little investment?

Richard Koo says that recessions can be caused by too much saving. This is what has been happening in Japan for the past 40 years. Traditional macro economics says that savings must equal investment. The problem is that the investment might not be in …

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Summary

Equity markets returned to a positive tone, but are looking at very modest gains from a month ago. SPX up 3.2%, IWM up 6.9%, NDX up 4.5%. All sectors, with the exception of energy, were up today.

Bonds were down a bit: 10 year govts. were …

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