Wolfstreet and Druck

Today, I read this article, from Wolf Richer’s blog. I think that Druck had previously said how grateful we should be for all these high-tech companies providing valuable services to us below cost (or, maybe in the case of Amazon, barely above cost). Well, yes, these …

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Bull and Bear, Immovable Object meets Irresistible Force. Which will win out?

Charlie Bilello is one of the many great commentators who collate data and give analysis to us for free. He has collected together some recent data which shows just how enormous the C-19 disruption has been over the …

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Some people when confronted with a problem think “I know, I’ll use options.” Now they have two problems.

(The above title is adapted from the Regular Expressions sub on reddit.)

Well, we have some incredible numbers for unemployment. Any regression model trying to fit this charg is going to …

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Markets are hard to read

Today’s FT (C&F): Peter Oppenheimer of Goldman Sachs says that event-driven bear markets are soon over, so don’t worry, chaps, everything will be fine from now on, especially for Big Tech. However, maybe governments will have no option but to start taxing …

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The Fed goes where other CBs fear to tread

I stole the title of this post from Robin Wigglesworth’s “The Fed’s Vietnam moment” published today. He, in turn stole it from Alan Ruskin of Deutsche Bank (with acknowledgment). It argues that the Fed may be getting in too …

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This is a note for me, to remember how to create a new entry.

I had to fiddle a bit with Pelican to make it work OK on Windows and to allow me to use a custom domain on github. You can see the full gory details at https://github …

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Disclaimer

I pinched all this from Max Nova’s Review. I plan to somehow use this as the basis of some articles.

FOREWORD

Trading, as far as I know, is the only endeavor in which the rank amateur has a 50/50 chance of being right. Why? Because there are …

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15th April 2020

OK, last week has been pretty awful. The Fed went all in on stimulus and there was a face-ripping rally of all risk assets. You lost a lot. Ugh. Lots of stops triggered. Yesterday was also a risk-on day, and you lost money, although you did sell …

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Friday 17th April 2020

OK, I’ve kinda gone delta-neutral on my long long-dated puts on TSLA, RUT and BA with shorter-dated short puts. This was a smart move. The market has been rocketing lately, for no obvious reason, as usual. At least I haven’t been damaged too badly …

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1st April 2020

Trades

• (Late yesterday): NQ, GC both sold by stop
• (Early this morning): ES & 3333 (China Evergrande) stopped (this and previous at a loss).

SX7P option sold via limit (up $10K).

• at desk this morning: sold 9 SX7P futures, to rebalance the hedge at a $3K loss,
• 5am …

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