2022-12-06

This article argues that the Fed is going to have to cut, and cut a lot, creating a huge steepening. Maybe the crash in oil prices (and the downturn in stocks, which amounts to a tightening) will be the nail in the coffin of further above-expectation rate hikes.

Wrap …

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2022-12-05

The problem with nuclear waste

Read this! It is by far the best account I have ever read about what to do about waste from fission reactors. There is a lot of irrational fear about nuclear power, because the physics that allows power stations to work is the same …

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2022-12-01

Ramaphosa

The president of South Africa had $580K in notes stolen from a farm. He believes that keeping notes stuffed in a sofa is a better idea than keeping them in a safe. And, of course it’s entirely normal to pay cash for a transaction involving more than …

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2022-11-30

The Fed to U-Turn (no, just kidding!)

Markets went mad today. The NASDAQ 100 is up 3%. He said:

“It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating …

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2022-11-29

I’m back

I’ve been on holiday, and since coming back trying to catch up with my day job. Fortunately, the market seems to have been completely directionless in November. There are big macro factors at play, but none of them seem close to being resolved. The Fed …

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Growth and inequality

To explore the question further, our study estimated a relationship for GDP per capita in which a change in income inequality was added to standard growth drivers such as physical and human capital. The idea was to test whether the change in income inequality over time has …

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Pivot coming?

Alex Manzara, who is always worth reading, said the following earlier today:

Is crypto implosion enough to create a true safety bid?  Probably not, but Steph Pomboy notes that Ontario Teachers Pension was a major investor in FTX, and succinctly tweeted, “My point is that it isn’t …

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date 19 May 2022

19 May

Wrap

There was continued risk-off behaviour. Equity markets failed to bounce. Bonds were mainly higher (yields lower), Brazil being an exception, but then just flat. The dollar is falling back, the Euro up 1.1%, to $1.05: maybe we will not see parity …

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date 18 May 2022

18 May

Trend following

The book The Man Who Solved the Market is an interesting, but at the same time a frustrating read. It explains how Jim Simons used sophisticated statistical tools to extract information about future price movements from price histories. A huge body of …

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Oil prices

Inflation, as properly defined, is an expansion of the money supply. The classic way of thinking about it is if we went to bed one night, and when we woke up we found that the balance in our current accounts had doubled, the notes in our wallets had …

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