1. We’ll miss globalization when it’s gone

    Published: Tue 15 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Tuesday 15, March 2022

    Globalization

    The FT ran a piece yesterday saying that removing Russia from Most Favoured Nation status in the WTO was not a great idea. It’s here but it might be behind a paywall. Sorry.

    The article makes (at least) two arguments. One is that Russia …

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  2. War goes on, oil continues to crash

    Published: Mon 14 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Monday 14, March 2022

    Oil and Ukraine

    China has been hit by many Omicron outbreaks. It’s lockdown strategy is failing, but the market is assuming that it will shut down its economy again, refusing to consider changing tactics. The war grinds on. Evidence seems to be mounting that the …

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  3. Disinformation

    Published: Fri 11 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Friday 11, March 2022

    Who can we believe?

    The first casualty of war is the truth.” “They are not even pretending anymore. — Ben Hunt”

    Control of the narrative is very important. We all learn that to get our own way, we have to persuade others of the correctness of our …

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  4. Oil sinks further. War goes on

    Published: Thu 10 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Thursday 10, March 2022

    Energy nonsense

    Biden, his advisors, Kamala, the Twitter amanuensis, whoever it is that writes Biden’s tweets is clueless about energy. He uses the usual argument that it’s cheaper to use renewable energy, and so not using oil will save us money and benefit us …

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  5. Oil collapses on no news

    Published: Wed 09 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Wednesday 9, March 2022

    Wrap

    Today was an explosively risk-on day. A few things happened: UAE suggested that OPEC would sell more oil, Zelenskyy said he’d talk to the Russians, people seem to have decided that the Fed and the ECB will hike less, or later than they were …

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  6. Commodities on fire

    Published: Tue 08 March 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Tuesday 8, March 2022

    Wrap

    Prices fluctuated. Zelenskyy said that Ukraine did not want to join NATO. I think that, in fact, he reiterated this, as it was part of the Minsk Accord, signed in 2014. I may be wrong here, but I have read that the idea that trends …

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  7. Equities start to hurt

    Published: Mon 07 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Monday 7, March 2022

    Wrap

    The war in Ukraine is going on too long. The west has badly miscalculated Putin’s intentions, and it’s not clear what credible threats now will deter him from driving on until he’s conquered Ukraine. Economically, having Ukraine once more fall within Russia …

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  8. SWIFTian prose

    Published: Fri 04 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Friday 4, March 2022

    Moving money internationally

    This is an insanely good essay on what it means to move money internationally, by someone who really understands what money is. You need to read it (H/T to Matt Levine who mentioned it in today’s column). What Patrick McKenzie points …

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  9. Commodities continue to rally as war in Ukraine grinds on

    Published: Thu 03 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Thursday 3, March 2022

    Wrap

    The war in Ukraine grinds on. More talks are scheduled, but no obvious resolution is in sight. The dollar strengthened, but the SPX did too, although the latter has been extremely choppy. Ark Innovation, as for many of its constituents, was extremely volatile.

    Energy and …

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  10. Oil becomes unanchored

    Published: Wed 02 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Wednesday 2, March 2022

    Wrap

    The only story in town is of oil becoming unanchored. The near month went up by nearly $8 a barrel. This is a commodity which was trading at a negative price a couple of years ago. The world seems to be waking up to the …

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