1. Brace, brace, brace. Hard landing coming.

    Published: Sun 27 March 2022
    Updated: Sat 18 March 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Sunday 27, March 2022

    Weekend comment

    For most of my long adult life, yields have trended down. This is explained in a variety of ways, but mostly in terms of an ever declining productivity of capital and excessively tight monetary conditions. In the developed world, credit creation has been extremely …

    read more

    There are comments.

  2. Taylor Rule RIP

    Published: Wed 23 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Wednesday 23, March 2022

    Taylor Rule Revisited

    One doesn’t hear much about the Taylor Rule these days. It’s a mechanical rule for determining what the correct level of the Fed Funds Rate should be to keep inflation under control. The definition is messy but the general idea is …

    read more

    There are comments.

  3. Stonks only go up

    Published: Tue 22 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Tuesday 22, March 2022

    Wrap

    Oil is now at $111 a barrel, and nobody knows where it’s going. Clearly, the high prices will drive more production, and a lot of oil can be produced at less than $100. However, Russia is 10% of global supply, and it’s not …

    read more

    There are comments.

  4. Capitulation or no?

    Published: Mon 21 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Monday 21, March 2022

    Bear Cave 109

    I am a huge fan of Edwin Dorsey. He writes a weekly newsletter (free!) with stocks which may be worth looking at more closely, of which the management may have been involved in fraud. The price of these stocks have usually crashed before …

    read more

    There are comments.

  5. Will Powell make it harder for Biden to be re-elected?

    Published: Sat 19 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Saturday 19, March 2022

    Market Huddle

    Jimmy Jude on Market Huddle: ED futures are due to have a rally. Powell, Yellen &c. do not want to do anything that in any way increases the chances of a Trump victory next time, including damage to the Dems at the mid-terms.

    read more

    There are comments.

  6. Predictions

    Published: Fri 18 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Friday 18, March 2022

    The future

    Stanley Druckenmiller, possibly the best trader of all time, said something one time about a high proportion (40%) of his calls being wrong. The market is basically valuing stuff right, most of the time. Of course, trends go on too far and valuations become …

    read more

    There are comments.

  7. Apocalypse Alert

    Published: Thu 17 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Thursday 17, March 2022

    Inversion Alert

    To my mind, on of the finest free resources on the web is Alex Manzara’s blog, Chartpoint. Today’s entry is all about how the Fed yesterday spooked markets into inverting the 5Y-10Y curve, and generally bending the curve down over out over …

    read more

    There are comments.

  8. The space race

    Published: Wed 16 March 2022
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Wed 16 March

    Fed Decision Day!

    The Fed raised the Federal Funds Rate (which, I think, is also the interest rate on excess reserves) to 50bp. This was exactly what the market was expecting. The decision was well telegraphed by Powell and others, so no major reaction in the market …

    read more

    There are comments.

links

social