Sunday 30, January 2022

This is a test!

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Inflation, again

Inflation, has been a burning question in economics the whole of my adult life. In my youth, the press was full of articles discussing the pitched battle between the Keynesians and the Friedmanites, and especially the latter’s attachment to the (much older) Monetarist theory of inflation.

Both …

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Friday 28, January 2022

Wrap

This was a risk-on equity day. The major US indices surged (NDX up 3.15%). Most other stuff was quiet, although nat. gas continues to zoom up. FX and bonds subdued. Some very good results from $AAPL and $VISA were the drivers of the equity …

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Thursday 27, January 2022

Fed analysis

For my money, Alex Manzara is the best commentator on fixed income, “period” (as the Americans say). Macro Alf is pretty good, and there are a lot which are worth reading, but Manzara always leaves me feeling smarter.

Manzara’s latest post hits the …

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Wednesday 26, January 2022

Wrap

Well, at the press conference after the meeting of the FOMC, Powell confirmed what we already knew: that rates were going up, or, in the carefully chosen language of the chairman, interest-rate hikes will “soon be appropriate.”

The markets never really seem to price their …

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Tuesday 25, January 2022

Wrap

It has been clear for quite a while now that we’ve been in an “everything rally.” With a few noteable exceptions, such as fossil fuel energy, gold, silver and some bricks and mortar retail stocks, everything seems expensive. The world is awash in many …

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Monday 24, January 2022

We hear about Ukraine as a land bridge to run gas pipes through and a frontline between Russia and NATO. The reality is that it’s a desperately poor country, as a consequence of all manufacturing industry being cartelized by a handful of oligarchs who date …

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Friday 21, January 2022

Wrap

I don’t have time to write much. Basically this was another risk-off day:

• US equity indexes off ~2% (NDX 2.8%),
• all OECD govt. bonds up,
• risk off currencies (JPY, EUR) up, USD fairly flat but DXY slightly down,
• commodities massacred, except gas, which …

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Wednesday 19, January 2022

What does Larry want companies to do?

I am a huge fan of Matt Levine. His analysis is top class. He is great at questioning everyone and everything. Today he looks at what the point of Larry Fink’s letter to CEOs is. In some sense …

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Tuesday 18, January 2022

Oil catches a huge bid

WTI futures (front month) were up 2.52% today, with a close at $85.93 a barrel. The backwardation now is extremely steep: the March 2028 contract is now trading at around $60.3. To me, this makes no sense. Oil …

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