Interest rates are on the move! Eurodollar futures continue to trade lower. Bonds, US and EU are weaker. Commodities are generally up: oil has had a very strong run since before Christmas. This almost exactly matches the systematic move up in 10Y yields for Treasuries …
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Economics is an odd science. Sometimes ad hoc rationalizations seem to acquire the status of founding principles. One such principle is the idea that an inverted yield curve invariably signals a future recession. This sort of makes sense. An inverted yield curve signals that the market …
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This report is very scary. It points out that global debt now amounts to 3.5 times global GDP. This is an insane amount of debt, in a world which has aready seen ‘peak child’ and in which productivity growth has almost ground to a halt.
Japan, as always, is …
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This month is half way through already. Some trends are becoming clear. The most dramatic one is that inflation is going up rapidly in the USA and in Europe. Mostly, this seems to be supply chain disruption as a result of a switch from …
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The Fed is the church of markets, and J Powell its high priest. How the Fed reacts to events, especially how it reacts to market movements, is the most important driver of markets. Since 2000 the Fed has demonstrated its willingness …
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Shows how actually giving people money to spend makes a difference to the real economy. As opposed to the Fed encouraging banks to swap their holding of one government liability (Treasury bills) for another (reserves).
This has had a big impact on …
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Interest rates underpin all of financial modelling. They link cashflows today to cashflows in the future. The “risk free rate” is a key parameter in all derivatives valuation. One of the odd things about the fundamental equation of finance, the …
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