Currencies

I know I drone on about currencies all the time. I just can’t help it. Stock prices are measured in this unstable unit, the value of which is based on faith. It’s just that a lot of investors focus on (say) stock prices, P/E ratios, EV …

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Biden/Harris bullish for oil prices

We know that the Democrats are furiously painting themselves green, to appeal to millennial voters. This sounds negative for oil demand: how will Exxon survive in a country where everyone is forced to buy a Tesla?

But prices are determined by the cost, and …

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I’m not dead yet says SARS-Cov2

One hundred and forty four thousand infections were recorded in the US yesterday. Yes, that’s a lot. More than the 92 patients who caught Covid in the Pfizer trial. Maybe investors are starting to worry about what happens if the virus …

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It’s a holiday in the US

Some markets are closed. It’s best not to trade on such a day. The tone seems to be moderately risk-on, but we’ll have to wait until tomorrow for something definite. The only notable thing that’s come onto my radar is …

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News Review

Green Gilts

The Chancellor is talking about “green gilts.” Gilts sound as though they should be a gold standard. If a piece of gold goes green, it’s probably because it is alloyed with copper, and you’re seeing some copper carbonate formed. This makes “green gilts” sound …

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DotCom Crash Rerun?

As human we seek patterns in random data. The current market conditions are pretty odd: the prices for growth stocks are unstoppable, but value stocks left in the dust. All while we have near zero (or sometimes negative) interest rates. Not all of these conditions are the …

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Biden has made it across the line and what it means for markets

What the market thinks a Biden-Harris presidency will do is more important than what they will actually do. It seems to me that the market expects Biden to borrow and spend, with the Fed as a willing …

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Chart of the day

This is the 30-year Breakeven Inflation Rate: i.e. the average CPI rate which would make an investor indifferent between holding 30 year nominal gilts and 30 year TIPS. The rate is still below the target rate of 2%, but it’s approaching it at a …

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Election grinds on

Nobody really knows who will be the next president. Whatever happens, Trump-like policies will continue to find support, amongst Republicans, and amongst the population. The years of wrangling over Brexit is a template for what will come. Only Covid could stop Britons arguing about it. I wonder …

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Who will be the next POTUS?

It’s morning in the UK, and it’s too close to call. Biden has 220 EC votes, Trump 213. Biden has done much less well than expected, and could still lose. It still seems hard to believe that the Dems could put up …

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