Wrap

Equities, yields, commodities, dollar (vs Euro) up. Precious metals down. NDX flat, $INTC down.

News

US election, stimulus measures (UK & US), Covid, regional lockdowns, Brexit. The usual suspects. No real resolution.

I was busy with personal stuff today. Normal service to be resumed tomorrow, hopefully. Something to ponder:

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Steepener in mainstream

The FT devoted a long article about the steepener trade. The headline was that Biden would cause long-dated bond yields to blow. Various authorities were quoted, including Paul Singer, Russell Clark, Dymon Capital, as well as an analyst at JPM.

This will not happen overnight, and it …

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The FED is toying with the idea of injecting money directly into consumers’ wallets

This article is about the FED toying with the idea of issuing a digital currency. This is equivalent to allowing ordinary consumers to have an account with the FED, and not just the commercial banks and …

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CCR (CONSOL Coal Resources LP)

Greenlight Capital holds a ton of this. Div. yield > 34%.

MOS

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4379722-mosaic-room-to-run-on-back-of-wheat-prices

The thesis is that with wheat prices on a roll, fertilizer is going to be in increased demand. Sounds plausible. Energy is an input into nitrogenous fertilizers, and that …

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Too much saving, too little investment?

Richard Koo says that recessions can be caused by too much saving. This is what has been happening in Japan for the past 40 years. Traditional macro economics says that savings must equal investment. The problem is that the investment might not be in …

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Summary

Equity markets returned to a positive tone, but are looking at very modest gains from a month ago. SPX up 3.2%, IWM up 6.9%, NDX up 4.5%. All sectors, with the exception of energy, were up today.

Bonds were down a bit: 10 year govts. were …

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Open

Markets seem risk off.
The FT says this is because the reality of a second lockdown is dawning on them. Presumably, Mnuchin and Kudlow will be wheeled out onto CNBC to say everything in the garden is loveley.

I missed this when it was posted, but it’s as …

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Today

Today seemed very mixed. No clear direction. The market generally is all over the shop lately. I think that the bond guys are generally smarter than the equity ones. The slope of the yield curve is a pretty good indicator of whether or not we’re heading down the …

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Yesterday

The NDX is going parabolic again. It’s hard to know why, but a big factor must be $AAPL’s reveal of its 5G phones. Apple is an extraordinary company. It is an object lesson in how good investor relations and marketing generally, and massive share buybacks, can totally …

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Market Open

Nothing much happens on a Monday morning, normally. Today saw some movement in commodities, mainly, with other assets largely quiet. Precious metals were up (except Platinum), agricultural commodities too, and NG. Oil was down. The FT had a chart for this year so far showing oil price (pretty …

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