Too much saving, too little investment?

Richard Koo says that recessions can be caused by too much saving. This is what has been happening in Japan for the past 40 years. Traditional macro economics says that savings must equal investment. The problem is that the investment might not be in thing you want. Unfortunately, it looks like the US is itself turning Japanese, with consequences which will not be pleasant, for equities at least.

Declining marginal revenue product of debt

John Maudlin has recycled Lacy Hunt’s thesis here. It’s probably better to read the original Hoisington report here. The webpage alone is worth a look to understand why Lacy Hunt is not one to waste money on fripperies.

Peak Bubble

I urge you to sign up to the Credit Bubble Bulletin. It’s free, and has a good summary of what’s going on in the markets.

It has a weekly rant about how terrible everything is, but the awful thing is that it’s right. Eventually, all this will go down in flames. I, like everyone else, is hoping that the reset will not happen in my lifetime (which, to be fair, is quite likely):

http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2020/10/weekly-commentary-moral-hazard-pinnacle.html

Charity Hedge Fund

This is Nick Givanovic. I heard him on The Market Huddle. It’s interesting to compare his tone on the programme and on Twitter. Costs money ($250?) to follow him on Twitter, but to be fair, you can download his historical tweets to see if he has been right historically. Can’t be 100% sure he didn’t delete his dud trades.

Great Barrington Declaration

This seems pretty innocuous, but is supposed to be supressed by Twitter. Not very effectively, in that case, as I found a link to it tweeted on Twitter. It does show up on a Google search, but not at the top.