Something ain’t right with the market

Inflation expectation out of line with nominal yields

This is from the Market Ear. It shows how the TIPs market has different expectations of future inflation than the Treasury bond/note market. My money would be on the breakevens being right, if I had any.


Seems as though terrible breadth in the market today, SPX flat, NQ up 1%, IWM down 1%. VIX very elevated. $AAPL and $TSLA, helped a bit by $AMZN holding up the SPX while nearly everything else wilts. Silver was up a lot (~3%).

The Topix (Japanese market) index was up, after it was revealed that Berkshire Hathaway had taken stakes in half a dozen big Japanese trading houses, including Marbeni and Sumitomo

The riots in the US are an endless drumbeat to the news. Trump seems to be focussing on stopping them, Biden has done so also, but probably using less extreme language. I can’t help thinking that the news coverage of these BLM demos increase Trump’s re-election chances. The rapid improvement in the Covid situation also provides him a tailwind.

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