I just saw this plot posted by David Finch. It’s very clear cut.
I just feel that Covid has not changed the world so much that it no longer needs energy. I recognize that more electricity generation is going to come from wind and …
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The bullish mood is still in the ascendant. Real assets are all going up. Bitcoin is bouncy. Bonds and bills are dead: all is calm in the fixed income world.
This is a ‘Schools Brief’ about the phenomenon of increasing government …
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The mysterious “velocity of money” is just GDP divided by the amount of money, in consistent units. The following is created by looking at GDP and M2 (in real dollars). Velocity takes a dive before (and early during) recessions. Maybe this time will be different.
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John Plender argues that central bank action will make treasuries and gilts (so called “safe assets”) less safe, in that it will increase the correlation of their prices with those of corresponding equities. It’s not Plender’s finest work, but it shows how inflation fears are being reported …
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I finally got around to creating a FRED chart which combines two series. I could probably do it better, but I’m pleased with the result. This is for the US, but global monetary conditions are usually closely correlated (proof?).
What is interesting is that …
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This is from the Market Ear. It shows how the TIPs market has different expectations of future inflation than the Treasury bond/note market. My money would be on the breakevens being right, if I had any.
Seems as though terrible …
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Well, it’s the Fed, isn’t it? Maybe, but Robin Wigglesworth gives a slightly more nuanced answer.
This is another forward rate prediction, which shows much the same thing, except there is definitely an uptick at the tail end. Maybe we are seeing the …
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