Open

Equities generally up, e.g. NDX futures up 1.4%. How long this will last … Bonds flat: we are in a fairly torrid possibly-starting bear market in equities and bonds are bouncing around as though there is nothing happening. I can’t help thinking this is bearish for bonds …

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Muted start to day

After the fireworks last week, nothing seems to be stirring. Gilt yields are up a bit, the FTSE ($Z) is up 1.5% currently, with average volume. $ESTX50 too. Soybean futures are up. Precious metals seem to be down. Oil is down. The dollar is up …

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New Month, New Quarter

Well, August finished up as the best month for the stock market in decades. Why, I have no idea, except “Stocks only go up!” (for those whose memories don’t go back to March).

To start, things are quiet, except I noticed:

• long Treasury bond futures …

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Jackson Hole

It came as a surprise to nobody who is even vaguely aware of what Jackson Hole is (apart from a holiday resort) that J Powell is going to allow inflation to run hot and put more emphasis on jobs than price stability. There was quite a bit of …

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Morning comment

Storm Laura is due to hit the southern US states any moment now, AFAICT.

Ant Group, a bit of Alibaba, is trying to get an IPO away in HK and Shanghai. Well, I always think that sellers know more than (potential) buyers in a situation like this, and …

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It’s Saturday!

The markets were closed today. It’s been a rough week. My evening read today is “The Mind of Wall Street”. Unusually (for me), it’s hardcopy (but not hardback). If you’re local (well, say UK) and you’d like to read it drop me a …

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Morning

All quiet on the eastern front. All professional investors getting nervous, while the Robinhood crowd count their winnings: A random example.

Fleck thinks that yield curve control is coming, even though the Fed says its not (it has form). He seems to think the dollar has gone down too …

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Wrap

Risk off, although equities seem to bounce back after hours. Dollar and bonds seem to be rallying: maybe things have been overdone. Precious metals up a bit, but I’m getting nervous about all inflation trades, given that it’s not clear if the Fed can keep creating money …

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Morning in Europe

Everything quiet as the grave. The SPX breaking through its ATH yesterday was met with a shrug, with everything slightly down, except the FTSE, which was down 1%. That is except Borsa Istanbul, which was up 0.6%, in TRY terms. In EUR terms, not so much …

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Leverage

You can get contradictory views on almost every aspect of investing. For every willing seller, there has to be a willing buyer.

I liked this from Stanley Druckenmiller, a ‘guru’:

[In March 2008.] I learned a lot at Soros, but not what I thought I would learn. I did …

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