A lot of macroeconomic theory is about whether we are above or below full employment. If we are above, the appropriate policy response is to tighten. If we are below, the correct response is to loosen. A a lot of …
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— 10-K …
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, we'll analyze the “Devil's Card Game”.
This is a super useful thought exercise. It can teach us several key concepts in economics, probability, betting, hedging, investor/market psychology, etc. pic.twitter.com/2VHx4iVkLk
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read more1/ From a friend:
— Montana Skeptic (@montana_skeptic) April 14 …
“I just heard @elonmusk on the radio.
“He is saying he wants 2,000 of $TWTR shareholders to stay in the company & to roll into the private company.
“This is impossible and not doable legally…
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A core group of Jeff Snider, Harley Bassman, Alex Gurevich, Lacey Hunt and Mike Green all believe that dollar yields are going lower. It’s a heterodox view, but the yield curve inversion, as well as declining productivity (which implies declining marginal …
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Metamorphosis ~ 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢 𝘗𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘩𝘬𝘰𝘷𝘢 pic.twitter.com/PyAjLQyAnx
— Futura (@Futura_Noir) April 6, 2022
US CPI hit 8.5%. Oil (WTI front month) went up 6.8%, to above $100 a barrel again. Bonds were fairly subdued: supply shocks may yet provide enough …
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Real assets went down, nominal assets went down. The only securities to to well were puts and gold and the dollar. The long-end of the Treasury market is looking under a lot of pressure. I believe that the market does not believe that the Fed …
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I heard the phrase ‘nine meals from anarchy’ mentioned without any context. It appears that it comes from the title of a talk given in Leeds in 2008 about the vulnerability of our oil-based agriculture. I had assumed it was some pithy summary of the fact …
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