Money flowed from commodities to equities. In FX, investors sold USD for riskier currencies. Bond investors remain calm: the US 10Y is 3.5bp below 2%. Commodities sold off, apart from silver and copper, dragged down by oil, which had spiked on early news.
Main …
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Russia seems to have decided on a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Markets reacted strongly this morning, with near-dated Brent futures shooting up a huge amount. Various EU and other countries condemned Russia, but at the end of the day, Russia is not going to be …
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Expectations, aggregate demand above productive capacity, runaway growth in credit creation. There are many explanations of inflation, most of which seem to fail in one regime or another.
It’s a very long time since anyone in fixed income markets in developed markets …
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If we are going into a bear market in equities, I’d expect to see credit markets weakening first. Bond traders are constitutionally bearish, and see the clouds on the horizon first, in my not-very-data-driven opinion. A graphic from the Daily Shot illustrates …
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I don’t believe in technical analysis. But I also don’t believe that stock prices move in a pure random walk. The marginal buyer changes over time. Many owners of stock are siloed. Most stock holdings are passive now, which means that buying …
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Putin seems to be running rings around the west in relation to his strategy for Ukraine. I have no idea what’s going to happen, but markets got spooked. There were reports of shelling in Ukraine. Conspiracy theories swirl around: one that I have …
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I am not Canadian. I don’t really know what the truckers in the Canadian convoy were protesting against. But I do believe in the right to protest, and I do believe that those opposed to vaccine mandates have a right to …
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The world is worried about the yield curve. In a normal economy, long-dated rates carry an uncertainty premium. Lenders need a greater annualized compensation for locking up their money for a longer term. They bear a greater risk of inflation destroying the value …
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There are lots of charts showing that inflation is not tamed yet. There are lots of charts which show that sentiment is weak as rising prices of all sorts of goods is draining the spending power of ordinary workers. The Fed is almost …
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Nobody is happy with the political system we have. Probably nobody has ever been happy with the regime they live under. It’s like a knockout tournament in tennis: everyone who enters ends up losing his last match, with a single exception, whatever the number …
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