1. Consumers about to be crushed?

    Published: Mon 18 July 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Monday 18, July 2022

    Macro trends

    Crescat produces a first class monthly newsletter this month it identifies the following macro trends:

    • Real interest rates dropping
    • Consumer sentiment dropping
    • Dropping real consumer income
    • Corporate margin squeeze looming
    • Raw materials structurally higher
    • Labour costs rising steeply (at least in nominal terms)
    • High …
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  2. The nature of money

    Published: Sat 16 July 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Saturday 16, July 2022

    Money is a government liability

    In this article, Patrick McKenzie explains how bank liabilities come to function as money. The old idea about money as liabilities of a central bank, or a government treasury, is outdated. Many commentators point out that banks create enormously more money …

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  3. The real reason

    Published: Fri 15 July 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Friday 15, July 2022

    Tacit reasoning

    When I was at school, polytechnics were increasing their intake. Our headmaster, who had been an undergraduate at Oxford, encouraged us to think about applying to polytechnics. When a friend of mine, who was on track for getting a good set of results at …

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  4. Bastille Day

    Published: Thu 14 July 2022
    Updated: Mon 16 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Thursday 14, July 2022

    Equities are still very expensive!

    Longtermtrends is a great resource. It comes out with a monthly newsletter. This relatively low frequency washes out most of the noise which is characteristic of so many market price measures.

    The current edition has some measures of where the stock …

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    There are comments.

  5. Recession expectations become entrenched

    Published: Tue 12 July 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Tuesday 12, July 2022

    Wrap

    China is imploding, because President Xi has made terrible decisions about how to handle Covid-19, and cannot lose face by following the example of the rest of the world. This will crater demand from China, which had driven down more or less every last commodity …

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    There are comments.

  6. Food riots bring down Sri-Lankan government

    Published: Mon 11 July 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Monday 11, July 2022

    Last week wrap (late)

    Rates are going to continue rising. Stron jobs report confirms this. Crypto may have some spillover effects, but doesn’t seem to be likely to cause contagion. Business seems very negative, but pro

    Organic farming as cause of Sri Lanka coup

    In …

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  7. Boris is filipendulous

    Published: Wed 06 July 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Wednesday 6, July 2022

    Oil Price Report Comment

    A look at today’s stock market is enough to understand the main concern for oil markets right now, recession. Whilst most assessments expected recession to kick in later this year, its first signs are already emerging with European economies potentially entering …

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