18 Oct

Theranos 2.0

Yes, Liz Holmes idea rises again! Well, Marx said that history repeats itself, first as tragedy, the second as farce.

US Housing Market due for a correction

Bill McBride cites Ivy Zelman’s view that house prices are close to a turning point. Housing, is …

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Stock of the day: Jubilee Metals Group ($JUB:TSE)

Used to be Jubilee Platinium, mines all sorts of minerals. Small cap (~CAD 500MM), strong cash flow, rapid recent growth in earnings, P/E still < 12, low debt, no large exceptional items. Based in London, traded on the TSX Venture exchange …

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Stock of the day: Whitecap Resources, a Canadian carbon-capture play

This article makes the bull case for $WCP:TOR It’s an oil company that’s carbon negative, because it can store CO~2~ in so-called carbon-capture underground storage (CCUS). I’m not sold on CCUS, but I think all …

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• trading

14 Oct 2021

Market cycle psychology

I used to subscribe to Bill Fleckenstein’s daily post. It was interesting, but Bill suffers from being a perpetual bear, waiting for the Japan panic of 1992 to occur again in equity markets. To be fair, Bill says that you can’t …

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13 October

Short squeezes explained

This is an excellent piece on why short squeezes happen. Basically, it’s that when a stock has been battered down, shorting it has limited upside and unlimited downside. Ultimately, this is due to the optionality embedded in a share price. When you buy a …

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11 Oct

Apologies for the interruption in service. I’ve been away. Normal service will now be resumed.

We are discovering how inelastic demand for energy is

“The very same voices who argued that investment in gas supply has to stop as a climate policy tool now declare that it …

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1 Oct

EVs are the lard arses of the road

Most EVs weigh in excess of two tonnes. In comparison, the kerb weight of the old Renault 4 (admittedly, a flimsy car) could be as low at 600kg, 30% of the EV’s weight. It doesn’t make sense to …

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30 Sept

GBP.USD

The pound has been cratering lately. The current account is terrible (?GBP 110 B, ~ 5% of GDP), the budget deficit is worse (14% of GDP). The UK is not the US: it’s currency is not a reserve currency, it doesn’t export any oil, or …

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29 Sep

Markets position

The US equity markets are mostly at or near all time highs. The SPX P/E ratio is around 31, according to something I read, although measuring this is probably tricky as headline earnings are almost never GAAP now, but “adjusted.” It seems hard to believe …

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28 Sept

What Kaplan did next

Wall St on Parade has done a thorough job of eviscerating Rob Kaplan. To quote Ben Hunt, they are not even pretending any more. It just seems insane that someone in his position was trading futures, in large size, while being in possession of …

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