Crumbs

More Inflation … analysis

Labour costs are rising, even in the middle of a pandemic in which nobody of working age has died. Obviously, this is not literally true, but the supply of labour has not been hugely affected by the pandemic. The implication for this are that (i) wages …

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Crumbs

• Tesla doesn’t have a captive financing arm, and so has less debt, but that’s a bad thing. Basically, the debt to finance the car finance business is counted, but the loans and leases that were bought with the proceeds of that debt are not counted. Keubiko is …

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Are we really in a reflationary environment?

It’s hard to say. The government is injecting money ‘into the economy.’ But, someone is buying those bonds, and those people have spent their money, on bonds, and aren’t going to spend it on new cars or homes. Keynes talked about …

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Turing Award

Authors of Green Dragon Book win Turing Award. Aho and Ullman were pioneers in compiler writing.

Democracy (or the lack of it) and Central America

Countries in Central America are largely under the control of a small number of families. But this is changing, not always for the …

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Wrap

Generally a risk on, deflationary day. Risk assets and most commodities up. Global equities generally up. Precious metals starting to catch a bid.

Not really sure what the driver is: a lot of news around the $2T infrastructure bill.

Twitter Treats

The Greensill tragedy continues to unfold:

NEW: Greensill …

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Crumbs

• Nordea put out a first class macro note as usual. The takeaways are: buy USD, sell SEK, EUR. Suggests going long AUD/NZD based on ZN central bank policy divergence. It’s always a good read, and it’s free!
• Negative note on $BYND. I’ve never been convinced …

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I stole this from TME, which is now paywalled. It’s well worth reading.

(When) is Cathie’s 27% discount placing coming?

Liquidity is an issue, and most people do not think about the liquidity factor until it’s too late, including risk managers.

Two takeaways from Friday’s sessions …

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Archegos Fallout

Charitable work, when done by grassroots volunteers, can be life enhancing for many individuals. When used by the 0.01% to launder their reputations, that’s not always the case. I’m not saying that charitable giving is prima facie evidence for wrong doing, I’m saying that …

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Wrap

I stole this chart from the excellent chartpoint.com. The forced liquidation of Archegos Capital over the weekend seems to have made remarkably little impression on the wider market. The leverage of that thing seems amazing, but I am prepared to put serious money (well, GBP 5) on a …

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But within the constraints imposed by the democratic process

The Copenhagen Consensus is what politicians would do if they carried out a clear-eyed evaluation of the costs and benefits of various policies. The problem is they don’t, because it would not be good politics. If we are looking at …

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