1. Saigon was nothing on this

    Published: Tue 17 August 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    17 Aug 2021

    Afghanistan

    As some wag pointed out, Twitter is full of Covid experts who double up as US foreign policy experts. I would never claim to be an expert, but I’ve never heard anyone sensible and disinterested arguing that the Afghan army ever had a chance against …

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  2. Aluminium glitters brighter than gold

    Published: Sun 15 August 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Weekend 14/15 August

    Goldmans say that Aluminium is going skywards. EVs need a lot of the stuff, 250 kg per car. It takes a lot of energy to make, and that’s going up too. How to play this: futures or maybe Rusal, if you aren’t afraid of …

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  3. Consumer sentiment collapses

    Published: Fri 13 August 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Wrap

    The Delta Variant seems to be really getting to the US Americans. Worries over it resulted (maybe) in a pullback in oil and a retreat for the dollar. The stimulus is yesterday’s news. Stock markets globally hit more all time highs. I assume this is all tied up …

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  4. CPI read a damp squib

    Published: Thu 12 August 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    12 Aug

    CPI read

    US inflation (CPI measure) was 5.4% annualized in July, a rate unchanged from the previous month and fractionally above expectations.

    Crude stocks were marginally less down than expected.

    The Senate passed a $1T (i.e. $1MMM) infrastructure bill, with cross party support. A federal budget …

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  5. CPI cliffhanger

    Published: Wed 11 August 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    11 Aug

    Inflation

    It seems fairly obvious that if the currency is rebased, inflation will occur. If the govt. announces that each pound in your bank account will be multiplied by ten overnight, the price of everything will rocket. Well, not everything. Your mortgage will suddenly have got a lot …

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  6. Reflation trade dead? Or is it merely resting?

    Published: Tue 10 August 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    10th Aug

    Markets

    I haven’t posted daily recently. I’m too busy with RL. But the trend seems embedded: commodities down, dollar up, yields down, curves flattening, inflation transitory, rates heading to zero (real rates -2%). Equity markets lack direction. The accepted cause seems to be the dreaded Delta …

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  7. Intuitive understanding

    Published: Mon 09 August 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    9th Aug

    Tacit knowledge

    When I was quite young, I must have seen some sort of TV interview of Hermann Bondi, then the master of a Cambridge college. He said something which resonated with me, which is that in some sense we have an instinctive grasp of Newtonian mechanics. A …

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