4 August

Nobody trusts this market

One of the topics over past weeks has been the extreme bid in protection vs what the market actually is doing. We have had a few sharp moves lower, but that was “fixed” in 24-48 hours.

While 3 month realized vols have trended small …

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3 Aug 2021

Oil becalmed

Open interest in oil futures is dropping rapidly. Basically, all markets, from gold to oil to USTs are settling on an disinflationary thesis.

I can’t help thinking that this will spill over in emerging markets debt, i.e. that we’ll soon see the …

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1 Aug

Sandridge Energy and Baytex Energy

Bison Interests are keen on these two. Highly geared, but benefiting from rising demand. You’ll have to listen to the lastest episode of the Market Huddle to get the detailed thesis. Or search for Josh Young on Seeking Alpha.

House prices, globally …

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28 July ‘21

Earnings set to rocket

Analysts’ forecasts for earnings, which are typically for 3-5 years, are more backward looking than forward looking. What goes up like a rocket tends to return to earth quite smartly.

Inflation expectations

Like a lot of people, I tend to think of the …

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20 July

Climate change and the class struggle

The poor are different. They have less money. This means that action to combat climate change which results in essentials becoming more expensive hits them hardest. For example:

• heating for houses, often draughty,
• petrol, and diesel for older cars,
• flights to Spain …

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19 July 2021

Today has been trailed for weeks as “Freedom Day,” when life in the UK was going to return to normal. Well, it didn’t quite work out that way, as measured cases are still quite high and the badly designed “NHS Covid” app has wreaked havoc by …

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Weekend 17/18 July (and week in review)

Revolut

Revolut is the highest value private company in the UK at £33B. It shows all the signs of being prepared for an IPO, through one of the many routes (SPAC, probably). The mainstream press is carrying lots of stories about how …

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Wrap

A 10Y and a 3Y auction didn’t run smoothly, with the result that yields are up. This buoyed SPX, and also boosted USD.JPY. It didn’t knock NDX back, but the Nasdaq didn’t rise any more than the SPX, which is unusual. $SPCE, Virgin Galactic had …

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Inmune

I am fairly convinced that Alzheimer’s Disease is an auto-immune condition. I am totally convinced that it is the most economically costly disease which is facing the world right now. INmune Bio, Inc. has an FDA approved treatment. The FDA approve drugs based on their not being harmful …

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9 July

Market review

I haven’t had time to write daily ‘wraps’ recently. The opening up of the UK economy has had a personal impact on me. I have needed to spend my time working on other things. I will therefore try to make sense of market behaviour over …

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