Crumbs

• US real estate is motoring. Builders of low-end homes have done incredibly well. There is a high level of household formation, and this has resulted in share price increases of up to 74% ($CCS — Century Communities). This must be, at least in part, down to the availability of credit …

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Crumbs

• Tobin’s Q is the market cap (of the SPX) as a multiple of the replacement cost of the assets. When a lot of assets are software and market dominance, this is hard to measure. Either the market is massively overvalued or the metric is no longer meaningful. Suggested …

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Crumbs

• Seems like risk on. Commodities up, dollar down a bit.
• EM equity markets are dominated by tech and discretionary (e.g. automotive). Not commods!

• But, but stonks never go down!

• 

• Great timing

• (Worthington Industries) $WOR is a steel play. It’s a big purchaser of steel and fabricator of …

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What a crazy year!

January

• $TSLA gained 55%,

February

• $SPCE opened the month at $17.15 and finished it at 42.49. The first of the exploding SPAC attacks,

March

• All markets crashed, stock markets closed, puts were no offer, the end of the world was nigh,

April

WTI futures …

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Opening

• Russell 2000 shows incredible momentum: it seems nobody knows. Retail punting?
• $ETSY tripled this year, and $SHOP quadrupled. They don’t have anything so old-fashioned as earnings.

Closing

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Forgiving student debt is a terrible idea

Oren Cass points this out. It is kind of obvious, but the solution is to allow student debt to be discharged in bankruptcy. Lenders have to have skin in the game. The absolutely worst thing is to destroy the information embedded in prices …

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22 Dec 2020

The progressive and never ending erosion of trust in our fellow men

Humans evolved in small extended family groups. Our brains are wired to get to know around one hundred and fifty individuals, and know them well enough to know whether or not they are trustworthy. Primitive …

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Global Winds Hack

Some, unknown, state actor seems to have gained access to the Global Winds source control system and inserted malware in the underlying source code (or, in some other way incorporated its software into the legitimate, and signed, release executables built by Global Winds). This is a serious …

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Markets are extended

Alex Manzara points out that almost every market is extended. The exception is long dated treasuries. But all assets seem to be at multi-year highs or lows. Alex is a rates man, but he comments that oil looks cheap now, relative to copper, which everyone has bought …

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Models, backtesting and risk management

This unrolled thread was very interesting to me. It’s about having a model, and backtesting it, to make your trading better. It’s by @EffMktHype. His very twitter handle shows that he’s skeptical of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). I’m a huge …

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