Real rates are dropping fast

I finally got around to creating a FRED chart which combines two series. I could probably do it better, but I’m pleased with the result. This is for the US, but global monetary conditions are usually closely correlated (proof?).

What is interesting is that …

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New Month, New Quarter

Well, August finished up as the best month for the stock market in decades. Why, I have no idea, except “Stocks only go up!” (for those whose memories don’t go back to March).

To start, things are quiet, except I noticed:

• long Treasury bond futures …

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Recap

The Kelly Criterion tells you how much of your capital you should risk on a single bet, e.g. on a horse in a race. Kelly, in his original paper, contrived a rather odd situation where you actually have an “edge,” i.e. the expected payoff of your bet …

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