Richard Koo says that recessions can be caused by too much saving. This is what has been happening in Japan for the past 40 years. Traditional macro economics says that savings must equal investment. The problem is that the investment might not be in …
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Nothing much happens on a Monday morning, normally. Today saw some movement in commodities, mainly, with other assets largely quiet. Precious metals were up (except Platinum), agricultural commodities too, and NG. Oil was down. The FT had a chart for this year so far showing oil price (pretty …
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Richer Report gives examples how ZIRP and fiscal suppression is going to do to the residential housing market what it has already done to equities and many other asset classes. Stockman is the first person to warn about this trend. You can read some of his stuff here …
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I have to feel relatively awake and able to concentrate, but when those conditions are fulfilled I like nothing better than to listen to an episode of Macro Musings with David Beckworth. He’s on the fairly obscure podcast app that I use, so yours will almost certainly …
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When the Covid recession started, people started wondering what the recovery would look like. The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 was horribly drawn out, and in fact GDP took longer to recover than it did in the Great Depression of the 1930s. How Bernanke, Yellen & Co …
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Kuppy has been keen on tankers for a long time.
Another strong risk-on day. Trump leaves hospital, Pelosi talks about stimulus packages, the trade deal is on (again?), CL1 jumps 6.2%. All agricultural commodities green, with the exception of corn, which is flat …
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The bullish mood is still in the ascendant. Real assets are all going up. Bitcoin is bouncy. Bonds and bills are dead: all is calm in the fixed income world.
This is a ‘Schools Brief’ about the phenomenon of increasing government …
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This article explains how RobinHood is able to offer retail investors commission-free stock trading. This article goes a bit further in suggesting that RobinHood is not really in the business of stealing from the rich to give to the poor, at least …
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The mysterious “velocity of money” is just GDP divided by the amount of money, in consistent units. The following is created by looking at GDP and M2 (in real dollars). Velocity takes a dive before (and early during) recessions. Maybe this time will be different.
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John Plender argues that central bank action will make treasuries and gilts (so called “safe assets”) less safe, in that it will increase the correlation of their prices with those of corresponding equities. It’s not Plender’s finest work, but it shows how inflation fears are being reported …
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