Twenty four hours

Renewables

Renewable energy turned out to be cheaper than expected. People are generally wrong about the future, especially a future decades off. Keynes spotted that: he basically said it was a waste of time trying to predict interest rates 20 years away. Krugman has argued that because …

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Email from the desk of the junior clerk

Berkshire Hathaway

Francine McKenna is not a huge fan of Warren Buffett as you can read here. I think the guy is great, and his sidekick Charlie Munger even greater, but they are both way, way past their ‘best before’ date. I …

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The weekend

Taxing the rich

Krugman has a post on taxing the rich. It makes the point that it’s very unlikely that a tax increase for the very rich will make them work less. I has a great chart of income against cumulative distribution. It’s almost a perfectly …

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The day

Weird monopolies

Cheap funding creates monopolies. The robber barons of the US at the end of the 19th century understood this, and the private equity guys do today. The smaller the industry, the easier it is. You just buy out your competitors. What’s amazing is that it …

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The day in retrospect

Reflexivity

I saw this great thread on reflexivity, George Soros’s contribution to investing lore. I have read his book on it a couple of times, and at the end of it I’ve always thought:

• wow, is that all there is to it?
• so, demand …

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Thoughts for today

The old order changeth … when exactly?

Packy McCormick writes a cracking blog. His latest post is about trying to imagine what will push Facebook, Google, Amazon et al. off their place at the top of the pyramid. He points out that the economics of their services are …

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The day

Wrap

The reflation narrative seems to be taking off:

• DXY down, to 90.87,
• 10Y Treasury up to 1.63%,
• virtually all commodities up: GSCI up 0.75% today, 20% YTD. Except gold, stuck on $1776/oz,
• equities generally flat. Blowout numbers from GOOG, up 3.6%, could …

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The day in review

Wrap

Today was pretty neutral. Equities were up slightly, but not enough to matter. Quite a number of the FAANGFAT stocks are due to report this week. $TSLA after hours tonight.

A stock I’ve liked for a while is $TPL, Texas Pacific Land. Do your …

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Weekend Update

Origins of life

The Ethical Skeptic is a former intelligence officer who has a wide range of interests and a rigorous approach to understanding the world. I came across him on Twitter through his analysis of pandemic statistics. He is a remarkable erudite individual. I discovered his long-form …

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Today as it happens

Digital shovels

Elmer Spud, probably not his real name, is worth following. He’s written this interesting piece arguing that although crypto is a digital Ponzi scheme, it might be worth investing in the exchange on which the worthless tokens are traded. He’s cautious and …

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