Opening

• Russell 2000 shows incredible momentum: it seems nobody knows. Retail punting?
• $ETSY tripled this year, and $SHOP quadrupled. They don’t have anything so old-fashioned as earnings.

Closing

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Forgiving student debt is a terrible idea

Oren Cass points this out. It is kind of obvious, but the solution is to allow student debt to be discharged in bankruptcy. Lenders have to have skin in the game. The absolutely worst thing is to destroy the information embedded in prices …

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Global Winds Hack

Some, unknown, state actor seems to have gained access to the Global Winds source control system and inserted malware in the underlying source code (or, in some other way incorporated its software into the legitimate, and signed, release executables built by Global Winds). This is a serious …

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Markets are extended

Alex Manzara points out that almost every market is extended. The exception is long dated treasuries. But all assets seem to be at multi-year highs or lows. Alex is a rates man, but he comments that oil looks cheap now, relative to copper, which everyone has bought …

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Models, backtesting and risk management

This unrolled thread was very interesting to me. It’s about having a model, and backtesting it, to make your trading better. It’s by @EffMktHype. His very twitter handle shows that he’s skeptical of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). I’m a huge …

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Crumbs

• Investment grade debt ($LQD) suffering outflows. (Daily Shot),
• every major currency has appreciated against the dollar this year. Since the nadir of Covid, the AUD has done best: a proxy for CNH, no doubt. Worst has been JPY. The NOK, SEK, NZD, MXP SKW and SAR have done pretty …

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Flakey stocks

$SNOW, Snowflake, is looking shakey after a meteoric IPO. $FDX has had a terrific run, but looks over extended too. $SPCE took a dive, like its faulty rocket test the other day. My guess is that it has further to go.

Nordea Nuggets

There are some great ideas …

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Convexity Maven’s Picks

Harvey Bassman’s picks are available for all. What I like about Harvey is that he sends out an email when he has something to say, unlike some folk who feel that they have to say something every day even when nothing has changed and they …

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So, sell everything … ?

Maybe go long TRY, WTI, Corn, Soy, INR, ZAR, Energy HY, SPX Healthcare, Taiwan or Japan?

Short the rest of the SPX?

… Risky!

Market Thoughts

Apart from the slightly jokey comments above, I think it might be worth looking at $T (AT&T) and some of the …

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I’m not sure who this lady is, but her rules are in line with other similar lists. I got this list from this post which is part of the Tischendorf Letter. Again, this is a recipe for momentum trading, as illustrated by rule 26. I think that this approach …

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