The Fed and the BoE

Central Banks

Everyone (well, someone) keeps asking me “Why is the Bank of England raising rates so much when everyone is forecasting that we’re about to go into a recession?” To be honest

170 years of Bank of England policy rates:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet …

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Sunrun inc

Sunrun: “ESG” is for Everybody Screws the Government (RUN US)

Muddy Waters is short Sunrun Inc. (RUN) because we see it as an uneconomic business built on three shaky pillars: The equity story of exaggerated “Subscriber Values” and “Gross / Net Earning Assets”, funding growth through abusing tax incentives …

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Distracting agenda

Wrap

MARKET SNAPSHOT AS OF 0430 GMT 4 Aug  :

S&P 500 Index Mini Futures: 4,153.00; down 0.08%; 3.25 points
DJIA Mini Futures: 32,764.00; down 0.02%; 6 points
Nikkei: 27,902.26; up 0.58%; 160.36 points
MSCI Asia, Ex- …

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Tuesday 2, August 2022

Real interest rates

The Real Fed Funds rate says the #Fed remains historically behind #inflation. Why discuss 75 bp hikes when the real question is when will they be doing 100bp hikes? pic.twitter.com/NQxlwlxoCX

— Richard Bernstein Advisors (@RBAdvisors) July 13, 2022

When and how …

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Monday 1, August 2022

Wrap

Oil was a big loser today. The nearby month of the WTI future dropped by 4.7% to $93.9. Presumably, this was a delayed reaction to the negative GDP print last Friday. Whether or not the US is in recession is an arcane topic …

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Weekending 31 July

Conservative leadership contest

Things are looking bad for Rishi. The master of detail and the straight-A student has failed to learn that to get elected you must promise the undeliverable. Truss, who has on several occasions embraced policies that even Milton Friedman would have approved of, understood …

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Thursday 28, July 2022

Recession or not?

Will we have a recession? If inflation hits 10%, it seems almost impossible to avoid. We’d have to increase nominal GDP by more than 10% to avoid real GDP going down, for two quarters. The BLS (or some quango in the USA …

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Wednesday 27, July 2022

Wrap

Markets showed once again how unpredictable they are. The Fed announced (at 6pm, after markets closed) that it would hike by 75bp. This was not a surprise. Powell threw a bone (bucket of hay?) to the bulls by saying that the Fed would adjust its …

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Monday 25, July 2022

Dollar strength

The dollar has been rising a lot. It has paused over the last week, but it is still maybe 7% higher than it was a few weeks ago. This is going to hurt US producers, whether exporters or not. Finally, equity markets where the …

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Sunday 24, July 2022

For most people, the biggest spend they will ever make is on a house. It’s not surprising, then, that the biggest asset class on the planet is residential housing. Housing is the market, the one that all other markets are connected to. When house prices …

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