1. Trump vs Biden

    Published: Tue 29 September 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    tags: journal

    Wrap

    I didn’t pay any attention to the markets today. Generally, it was slightly risk off. Soft commodities up a bit. Most indexes down. Some of the tech megastocks up. $XOM down 3%, all the oil majors down heavily. $SLB down 5.2%!

    Maybe something more exciting will happen …

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  2. weekend report

    Published: Sat 26 September 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    tags: weekly

    Wrap

    S&P down 0.6% this week (up 2.1% y-t-d). Ten year Treasury yields fell four bp on the week (down 12bps ytd). Most international equities were down, apart from inflation-prone places like Mexico and Turkey. I feel that the weakness of currency is the biggest weakness of …

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  3. Friday thoughts

    Gold and real rates

    I just saw this plot posted by David Finch. It’s very clear cut.

    XAU real rates

    Energy

    I just feel that Covid has not changed the world so much that it no longer needs energy. I recognize that more electricity generation is going to come from wind and …

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  4. Carbon-neutral obligations for our children

    China to be carbon-neutral by 2060

    Xi Jin Ping promised this, and promised that Chinese emissions would start to decline by 2030. It’s a big ambition. It will be interesting if it can be delivered without huge hardship for the greying population of this country.

    Markets this morning

    The …

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  5. market notes 23 Sept 2020

    Published: Wed 23 September 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    tags: journal

    Wrap

    Today was definitely risk off. Everything down again, including commodities (except NG which has a life of its own: up 18%, on weather in the gulf, apparently). Developed Europe looking weak. Emerging markets all very weak. Japan an exception, not sure why. Maybe the BoJ started buying ETFs more …

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  6. It was the RobinHooders what done it

    Gamma Squeeze

    The Market Huddle interviewed Brent Kochuba about gamma and how it interacted with the cash market last month. I listened to this while doing something which required more concentration than was compatible with understanding every nuance of what Brent and Kevin were discussing, but the takeaway I ended …

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  7. Daily Note

    Morning Report

    Basically, the price of everything is down, except Treasurys. I guess that’s risk off. Gold is down, along with other metals and soft commodities. Crude is down 2.3%. Lagarde is trying to talk the Euro down. It’s certainly going up against the Turkish Lira, which …

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  8. 19 Sept Weekend Wrap

    Published: Sat 19 September 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    tags: journal

    RBG

    Ruth Bader Ginsberg died this week. She was 87. The liberals in the US are outraged that Trump may get to choose her replacement. I don’t know why she didn’t she didn’t step down while Obama could have chosen a 40-year old to replace her. I …

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  9. Growing old with dignity

    Published: Sat 19 September 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In misc.

    State and family

    We voluntarily give up a lot of our income to the state. Public spending is now 55% of GDP, which means that, on average, more than half of the income of the population is spent by the state, and therefore not available for discretionary spending. As we …

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