Autist repetition

I know I sound like Bill Cash droning on about Europe, but the sheer weight of interest in inflation recently has been amazing. A lot of mainstream press is suddenly saying “Whoa, why are interest rates going up? Is there really no negative consequence of the US Treasury …

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Crumbs

Eurodollar futures sound deadly dull and boring. Their implied vols (~0.8%) back that up. But they are starting to move, and when a Panamax sized ship of this size starts moving, it’s damn hard to stop!

It’s easy for retail traders to short the Nasdaq. These …

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Crumbs

• the market is starting to move to a bear market mentality, in SPX, NDX, SOX (semiconductors), FAANG etc. We can’t know the future, but we can have a gut feel about it, and the consensus seems to be that rates are going higher, and with them DX, which …

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Calum Thomas’ Thesis

Calum Thomas combines his top charts ideas into one. His ideas are: 1. global equities should outperform US ones, 2. emerging markets (EM) should outperform developed ones (demographics, deficits, trade), 3. EM ex-Asia should outperform EM within Asia: rotation play, 4. Value will outperform growth (it’s …

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Crumbs

• Lyn Alden thinks that the Fed will not resort to yield curve control. Yet.
• FT Article explaining that liquidity of the Treasury market is not as great as people would like.

  Banks often blame bouts of illiquidity on post-crisis regulations constraining their ability to make markets, and the influx …

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Crumbs

• Citi issues Muskian research on Bitcoin. Basically, some weary interns plundered the content of the Ponzi-like 99Bitcoins.com and turned it into a 108 page Citi report, complete with absurd claims such as that 36% of all US retailers accept BTC as a means of payment. Never forget that …

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Stocks and Bonds

The so-called ‘Fed Model’ of the stock market says that you can just compare the dividend yield (or free cashflow yield, EBITDA yield etc.) with bond yields, to get a handle on what the stock market is doing. So, if yields fall, the stockmarket goes up (because …

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Notes

• AO Smith might be worth a look,

KEDM summary

Stocks to watch:

• $FRTT: gold producer (miner?); a spin-off
• Technip Industries ($TE) is a forced exit play,
• $FSP has a lot of insiders buying,
• $COTY same,
• $BW same,
• $CNDT same,

• $SPOK, cluster buy, has momentum.

• $ELVT on buybacks,

• $WRLD has …

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There is no bubble: says JPM

The Market Ear writes:

The dream team of thought-leaders at JPM had a conference call arguing that there is no bubble in the equity markets or credit markets: “We do not see a broad equity market bubble but rather certain pockets of the market …

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• The NOK should be more correlated with global asset markets (outside of Norway) than the Norweigen economy, says Tor Vollalokken.
• Industrial capacity utilization is up, but still on a downward trend. This will depress inflation expectations.
• Coinbase is IPOing. The population is going mad about SPACs and Bitcoin.
• Modi names …

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