Crumbs

The new Bear Cave newsletter (#53) is out. It has picked up that the ARK ETF(s) may implode.

Other bearish tickers:

1/ Why are there so many SPACs?

Answer 1: Great economics for sponsor (average of 20% of money raised upon deSPAC / merging with a target, Eg $400M …

There are comments.

Crumbs

It looks to me as though oil is going to strengthen in the near future. An alternative to actually buying the commodity or the upstream oil companies I may be wrong, of course!

Inflation

The world has experienced low or negative inflation. This is a great worry to central …

There are comments.

Crumbs

Today was President’s Day: a holiday for many US Americans.

Shipping, both container and bulk, is a very unloved sector. There cycle is long, and it takes a long time to build a ship. I think we’re going through a cyclical up phase, as commodities (oil, LNG …

There are comments.

Crumbs

The market expects real yields to be negative as far as the eye can see, which doesn’t mean that nobody will make money investing in long-dated Treasuries, but does mean that the US Social System has a problem.

• $HJLI is very interesting, according to tailwinds. It produces some …

There are comments.

Crumbs

• Sam Zell thinks we’re in a bubble caused by the Fed. Well, not the most original of ideas, but Sam has a track record of being right more than he’s wrong,
• Elon Musk has inherited Steve Jobs’ ‘reality distortion field’. Elon is the poster middle-aged man of …

There are comments.

Crumbs

Investors are behaving as though they expect the govt. yield curve to steepen. The suggestion is that the BoJ will move away from yield curve control of the long end. It’s hard to imagine there are any JGB traders still working, it’s been so long since trading …

There are comments.

Crumbs

Are we close to hitting capacity constraints in the US or UK economies? Not even close! We have abundant physical capital, and financial capital for materially net negative interest rates. We have labour utilitization which is way below 100, even for prime age workers, not to mention the reserve …

There are comments.

Crumbs

• Insanity in crypto continues. Dogecoin absurdly pumped by Musk.
• 
• 
• equities and bond yields move together (I guess that’s the much-derided “Fed Model”). There is a huge gap to close, when these two series are looked at over the longer term. The interesting thing is to speculate on which …

There are comments.

Crumbs

• Miller Value Partners Deep Value Strategies include Brighthouse Financial ($BHF), Wells Fargo ($WFC) and Gannett ($GCI). I don’t know much about the last, but the first two are financial sector stocks that have had a rough time lately. They seem to be trading below book value.
• Fairholme Fund …

There are comments.

Crumbs

• Chamath Palihapitiya — billionaire of the people. The FT saying, in a coded way, that this ex-Facebook executive is a crook (the comments are the best bit). You can see the original report here. It’s pretty damning, but only a fool would short a high short-interest stock in the …

There are comments.