Crumbs

Today was President’s Day: a holiday for many US Americans.

Shipping, both container and bulk, is a very unloved sector. There cycle is long, and it takes a long time to build a ship. I think we’re going through a cyclical up phase, as commodities (oil, LNG …

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Crumbs

The market expects real yields to be negative as far as the eye can see, which doesn’t mean that nobody will make money investing in long-dated Treasuries, but does mean that the US Social System has a problem.

• $HJLI is very interesting, according to tailwinds. It produces some …

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Crumbs

• Sam Zell thinks we’re in a bubble caused by the Fed. Well, not the most original of ideas, but Sam has a track record of being right more than he’s wrong,
• Elon Musk has inherited Steve Jobs’ ‘reality distortion field’. Elon is the poster middle-aged man of …

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Crumbs

Investors are behaving as though they expect the govt. yield curve to steepen. The suggestion is that the BoJ will move away from yield curve control of the long end. It’s hard to imagine there are any JGB traders still working, it’s been so long since trading …

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Crumbs

Are we close to hitting capacity constraints in the US or UK economies? Not even close! We have abundant physical capital, and financial capital for materially net negative interest rates. We have labour utilitization which is way below 100, even for prime age workers, not to mention the reserve …

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Crumbs

• Insanity in crypto continues. Dogecoin absurdly pumped by Musk.
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• equities and bond yields move together (I guess that’s the much-derided “Fed Model”). There is a huge gap to close, when these two series are looked at over the longer term. The interesting thing is to speculate on which …

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• Miller Value Partners Deep Value Strategies include Brighthouse Financial ($BHF), Wells Fargo ($WFC) and Gannett ($GCI). I don’t know much about the last, but the first two are financial sector stocks that have had a rough time lately. They seem to be trading below book value.
• Fairholme Fund …

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• Chamath Palihapitiya — billionaire of the people. The FT saying, in a coded way, that this ex-Facebook executive is a crook (the comments are the best bit). You can see the original report here. It’s pretty damning, but only a fool would short a high short-interest stock in the …

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• Jeff Bezos is bowing out,
• — bullish for US housing.
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• DX is experiencing a short squeeze!
• Gold is experiencing the polar opposite (just crashed below the 200 day MA).
• Musk pumps DOGE. Seriously, I don’t like to take potshots at guys who are not in a position to answer …

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BCA — who they? But it’s nice to know I’m not the only one seeing Fed funds rates going up in the next few years. This prediction puts rates at 8% by end 2024. Seems incredible now, but it’s not that long ago we saw higher.

Janet …

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