Inflation about to be crushed!

Eric Basmajian thinks so. The argument is that consumption (and hence demand) is being crushed by demographics (and the need to pay down debt) so that the world we end up awash with an excess of physical capital and goods and services that nobody wants …

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How to influence prices

“ Suppose the government is trying to increase the price of cheese: It could buy a large quantity of cheese and let the market determine the impact of the policy on price, or it could set a price for cheese and stand ready to buy as much …

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Mortgage REITs

MBS spreads are as low as they have ever been. Assuming that rates generally are pegged lower, this is bullish for mortgage REIT ETFs such as $REM or $MORT.

Retail Army: some astonishing observations

Households own 36% of the $57 Trillion US equity market. ~$21 Trillion. If you …

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WSB

These guys just pile in on high short-interest stocks to pop them higher. Current targets are GME, AMC, BB, BBY, NOK. AMC IV is 392%! This is kind of insane, but fascinating. At some point there will be a day of reckoning, but with AMC up 11% in pre-market …

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Crumbs

The market seems to be taking a risk-on direction as the world wakes up to the fact that Biden in the White House and the mere existence of a few effective vaccines does not mean that the world is returning to normal any time soon.

Generally, the markets have …

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CCS viability

There is a good thread from TC which analyses the issues with CCS. Essentially they boil down to the economics:

• there is no real economic use for CO~2~ in the quantities it would need to be produced,
• the only economic use would be in increasing the yield …

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Realistic expectations of investment returns

This is from Rowan Street’s latest investor letter (the link gives all letters, which are downloadable PDFs).

Rowan Street’s philosophy is to “hang on in there.” Maybe this is right, but this might be tested later this year.

Biden builds back bigger

Well …

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Crumbs

Lacy Hunt: still bullish after all these years

Lacey Hunt has produced a new quarterly report for Hoisington. Basically, he’s saying that there is loads of spare capacity, and the fiscal multiplier has actually turned negative (i.e. govts. deficit spending actively drains demand out of the economy …

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Crumbs

• Luke Gromen thinks that the Fed will have to choose between saving the dollar or the economy and, as is right, it will save the economy,
• Fifty three thousand estate agents work in the UK. One in six hundred employees are estate agents. Probably, the
• Everything is OK, chaps …

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Wrap

With the US on holiday, there was not much direction to the markets today.

• Generally, longer-term govt. yields were up,
• Energy mixed,
• most non-US markets down, although Europe managed a rally.

Chart for the day

M3, broad money, has risen by 400bln in the last year. This is …

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